Is it Americas role to intervene in Iraq Essay Example For Students

Is it Americas role to intervene in Iraq? Essay As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan. A strong case can be made that Iraqs leader, Saddam Hussein, is so threatening to his people, his neighbors, and U.S. interests that the United States should use military force, unilaterally if necessary, to overthrow him. Proponents of such an approach, however, often underestimate the costs and risks involved. Instead of mounting a U.S. attack on Iraq as part of the current cam paign, the Bush administration should take advantage of its success in Afghanistan to pressure allies and regional players to isolate Saddams regime and to reinforce deterrence in an unambiguous way. A new Bush Doctrine should announce that Baghdads support for terrorist networks, transfer of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups or individuals who target the United States, or the harboring of such terrorists will be considered an act of war and lead immediately to an American military intervention to overthrow the regime. Targeting IraqThere are many potential targets for a possible post-Afghanistan phase of the warAbu Sayyaf guerrilla bases in the Philippines, for example, as well as terrorist headquarters and training camps in Somalia, Syria, and Lebanon. But none is more consequential or more prominent in the current policy debate than Saddam Husseins regime in Iraq. Numerous outside analysts and (more privately) some senior Bush administration officials are already making the case that the next phase in the war on terrorism should be an effort to overthrow the Iraqi regimeif necessary, with U.S. military force. On November 26, President Bush himself appeared to raise the ante on the Iraq debate, stating that Saddam would find out what was in store for him if he failed to heed international demands to allow inspectors into Iraq to look for weapons of mass destruction programs. While Bushs statement may have been nothing more than a reiteration of existing U.S. policy, it was interpreted by many as a conscious effort to remind the world of the dangers posed by Saddam and to begin to create a legal and political predicate to justify an eventual American attack against him. Many overthrow advocates argue that the United States should remove Saddam regardless of whether Iraq was involved in the September 11 terrorist attacks or not. Absent compelling evidence of significant Iraqi involvement with the al Qaeda network or the events of September 11, the likely costs and risks of a commitment of American military forces to a regime-change campaign in Iraq would outweigh the benefits. A U.S. overthrow campaign would entail a large-scale military operation that the United States would probably have to undertake essentially alone; the increased risk of triggering terrorist attacks against American or allied targets; significant American casualties given the potential for intense urban combat and Iraqi use of chemical and biological agents; and the likely need for a long-term American military presence in Iraq to avoid regional destabilization. While these costs and risks are not so high as to rule out a possible overthrow policy under certain circumstances, they should be sobering to any advocate of sending U.S. troops to war to change the Iraqi regime. The central assumption behind this argument is that Saddamunlike the religiously motivated Taliban/al Qaeda networkis more interested in preserving his power, his regime, and his life than in carrying out acts of terror against American interests. If that assumption proves wrong and evidence emerges of Iraqi sponsorship of terrorism against the United States, the considerable costs of a U.S. intervention to overthrow Saddam would be worth payingwhether the rest of the international community was on board or not. The Challenge of Overthrowing Saddam HusseinEven short of any new Iraqi acts of aggression or terror, the removal of Saddam Hussein from power would be highly desirable, and the arguments that force should be used to remove him are not trivial. Saddam has shown great determination to produce weapons of mass destruction and has a track record of ruthless aggression against his own people and several of his neighbors, including Iran, Israel, and Kuwait. He has a proven desire for vengeanceas evidenced in the attempted assassination of forme r President George Bush in 1993 and the murder of two of his own sons-in-law after they briefly defected to Jordan in 1995. There is clear evidence that terrorists, even if not part of the al Qaeda network, have been trained in Iraq in the past. Although Saddam and al Qaeda are adversaries in many waysSaddam is a committed secularist, except where it suits him to pretend otherwise, and al Qaeda claims to be motivated by religionit is not implausible that they would join forces to attack the United States. The apparent meetings in Prague between an Iraqi intelligence official and hijacker Mohammed Atta in 2000 and 2001 suggest that at least a limited form of contact has already occurred. Even as policymakers contemplate the many potential benefits of removing Saddam from power, however, they should not overlook the likely costs, risks, and consequences of an attempt to do so. Air Power and Opposition Forces Alone Would Not Suffice. Despite the claims of many regime-change proponents, policymakers should be under no illusion that Saddam could be quickly overthrown by the application of U.S. airpower in support of a ready-made, armed opposition. While improvements in U.S. air capabilities since the Gulf Warincluding Global Positioning System (GPS)-guided bombs and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) coupled in near real-time to command centers and manned aircrafthave been significant, they would almost certainly not be enough to make possible victory by air power alone. Even GPS-guided bombs are generally not accurate enough to destroy armor, and Saddam would be sure to position much of his force (and weapons of mass destruction) in crowded cities, schoolyards, and hospitals, greatly complicating U.S. targeting options. The successful use of laser-guided bombs against stationary Iraqi tanks in the Kuwaiti desert in 1991known as tank-plinkingwould be difficult to replicate in the complex terrain and urban areas in cen tral Iraq. Iraqi opposition forces are deeply divided and have a history of infighting. Even if aggregated, the various Kurdish, Shia, and Sunni opposition forces have perhaps one-tenth the strength of Iraqi armed forces. They would be outnumbered more than two to one just by Saddams most dedicated fighters, his Special Republican Guard and Republican Guard forces, totaling about 100,000 personnel. Communication Systems EssayA Deterrable RegimeInstead of incurring these high costs and significant risks, the United States should follow a different coursea reinforced policy of deterrence articulated as a new Bush doctrine that would explicitly threaten regime change in response to Iraqi acts of terrorism or aggression. As threatening and dangerous as Saddam Hussein may be, the track record suggests that he can be dissuaded from undertaking actions that he believes would likely lead to his overthrow. During the Gulf War, Saddam refrained from using the weapons of mass destruction we now know he had, understanding (following explicit threats from U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney) that to do so would almost surely lead to his downfall. He has used chemical weapons against Iran and against his Kurdish citizens, but never against a countrysuch as Israel or the United Statesthat could destroy him. He moved brigades southward towards Kuwait again in 1994, only to pull back once the Clinton administration mounted Operation Vigilant Warrior, a deployment of tens of thousands of troops. He interfered with the work of foreign weapons inspectors frequently, and ultimately expelled them, but never killed or harmed them. He brutally attacked Shia resistance forces in southern Iraq in 1991, after it became clear that the first Bush administration would not interfere to stop such operations, but generally avoided brutality against Kurds in the north on ce the United States made clear its commitment to their security. In 1996, he did direct an incursion into Kurdish parts of Iraqbut only after internecine warfare among Kurds and an explicit invitation to him to intervene by one of the Kurdish factions made it unlikely that the United States would be in a position to oppose him. Saddam has obviously also shown a proclivity for risk-taking, not least in his decision to invade Kuwait (and hold it until U.S. forces expelled him) and his attempted assassination of a former American president. But none of his aggressions, he rightly calculated, seemed likely to lead to his overthrow, with the possible exception of the assassination, had it been successful. That explains, perhaps, why Saddam appears not to have repeated the attempt. The evidence illustrates that Saddam Hussein is a ruthless and brutal dictator, but also that he is bent on self-preservation, and thus deterrable. Saddam might, of course, think he could support al Qaeda or a similar organization and not be caught doing so. But he also knows that the United States has a proven ability to track meetings between his agents and potential terrorists and that it can often trace the origins of biological agents based on their genetic content, particle size, chemical coating, or other attributes. Thus, while there is a chance his cooperation with terrorists could succeed in escaping detection, there is a better chance that the United States would be aware of his activities. Saddam would also be on notice that if his actions followed those of the Taliban, he would meet their fate. ConclusionThe United States should not now mount a large ground operation to overthrow Saddam Hussein, given the prospect that it could entail significant casualties, increase the risk of terror attacks against the United States, and require a long and costly occupation even after Saddam was gone. Anything short of a ground invasion, however, would run a high risk of failure. Despite his brutality, almost all available evidence suggests that Saddam Hussein can be deterred because he values his hold on power and his own life more than any ideological goal and more than revenge against the United States. Future acts by Saddam, or further evidence about his links with al Qaeda, could lead to a different assessment, and there should be little doubt that the American people would support a campaign to overthrow Saddam in such circumstances despite the likely casualties. At present, however, he appears to be contained every bit as well as the North Korean leadershipand much more tightly th an was the Soviet Union during the cold war. This is hardly a case for complacency, however. The United States needs to complement its containment policy by making it unmistakably clear to Saddam Hussein that renewed Iraqi aggression, support for terrorism against the United States or the transfer of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups would lead to a concerted U.S. campaign to overthrow his regime. While the exact threshold for when an overthrow policy would be triggered might be hard to define precisely (indeed there could be some merit in a small measure of ambiguity for the sake of deterrence), certain triggers could be made very explicit: any transfer of weapons of mass destruction to al Qaeda or similar groups; direct complicity in the September 11 attacks or any such attacks in the future; involvement in the September-October 2001 anthrax attacks; or the harboring of groups that carry out terrorism against the United States. Bush could also make clear that a range of other Iraqi actions unrelated to terrorism significant progress toward the production or acquisition of a nuclear weapon; another attempted invasion of Kuwait; an attack on Israel; or the use of force against American troopswould also be considered redlines that would produce a policy of overthrow. To back up the new strategy, the United States should continue to keep adequate military forces available for the job on potentially short notice, develop concrete plans to work with opposition groups for a strategy of overthrow, and mount a diplomatic case with key allies to win their support should an invasion become necessary. At the same time, the Bush administration should accelerate efforts to persuade Russia and some of Iraqs neighbors to move forward with a new sanctions regime that would crack down on Iraqi smuggling, focus sanctions more specifically on the Baghdad leadership and weapons of mass destruction capabilities, and make civilian goods available for easier import into Iraq. Meaningful searches for Iraqs WMD capabilities would also be desirable, but only if they would be more effective than those of the late 1990s. Americas allies and the regional powers need to understand that if Iraq cannot be contained with sanctions and stronger nonproliferation efforts, Washington may ultimately have to use force to achieve that goal. The U.S. administration should make it clear to the rest of the world that it cares a lot more about the well-being and future of the Iraqi population than does Saddam Hussein, and it should hold out a vision of American support for a future Iraq under a different regime. Reinforced deterrence, more vigilant nonproliferation efforts, and smarter sanctions will not make the Persian Gulf region risk-free or immediately free the Iraqi people from a brutal dictatorship. But they will serve the core goal of helping to prevent future terrorist actions like those of September 11 at a reasonable military and strategic cost.